Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
