Everyday Killings in Mexico Fall Over a Third Under the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Statistics

The typical figure of per-day killings per month in Mexico has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to fresh government statistics. Nevertheless, security analysts have warned that homicide data could fail to indicate enhanced national safety.

Significant Decline in Daily Averages

There was an mean of almost 55 killings a day in last November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in September of last year. This data was shared by the head of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we’ve had during these past months is extremely notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, noting that last month the lowest amount of homicides were recorded for any November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Intense organized crime infighting, combined with the government’s heavily military operations to confront the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent years. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's official data agency.

That meant Mexico a murder figure over 4x higher than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety plan for an seemingly steeper drop in killings this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the head of state declared: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The key pillars of the President's security strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation work.
• Greater coordination between government agencies.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

But, security experts cautioned that focusing solely on murder data to draw a conclusion of pacification was flawed. This is notably true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be excellent information if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder data and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not valid for assessing the context of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the inclination to properly recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of daily killings was similarly problematic because it could hide periods when there were particularly elevated numbers of murders.

“Employing the daily mean makes spikes of violence invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, according to government figures. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet despite these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with high violence, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past year.

A short time after, many thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and across the country to express their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The government presents [data] in a way to construct a story of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, socially it’s very debatable,” Vargas said.